Berkshire Hathaway ups the ante on Japan
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Berkshire Hathaway ups the ante on Japan

- We started to invest in Japanese trading companies 15 years ago and have seen them evolve into diversified operating companies

- Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has increased its stakes in Japan’s five biggest trading houses, and he now owns 7.4% of each company

- Against this backdrop we remain excited about the opportunity set of inexpensive quality businesses in Japan

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has increased its stakes in Japan’s five biggest trading houses, and he now owns 7.4% of each company. Buffet also indicated that he could continue to expand these investments – potentially raising the stakes to 9.9%. The trading houses, or “Sogo Shoshas” as they are locally known1, are Itochu, Marubeni, Mitsubishi, Mitsui & Co, and Sumitomo and are some of Japan’s oldest and biggest companies, each holding investments in a variety of industries.

 

Hathaway’s move means Japan is now the second largest bet in its portfolio of publicly listed companies. So, should other investors take note? 

 


A decade-long bet for us


We started to invest in Japanese trading companies almost 15 years ago in portfolios and have witnessed their business models evolve from low value-added intermediaries for merchants to exchange goods, to diversified operating companies like Berkshire Hathaway. The business model is unique and hard to replicate given the breadth and depth of expertise within each business they operate.

 

Itochu2 is one of the biggest trading houses and the longest tenures in our portfolios, and thanks to our decade-long investment we have a great relationships with the management team. Itochu is uniquely positioned to create value through a business model which is deeply entrenched across supply chains in industries such as textiles, machinery, food, IT and financials. Many foreign investors have looked past the opportunity to invest in Japan’s conglomerates, while the term “trading company” has often been misunderstood. This has created an exploitable perception gap. The trading companies have been attractively valued to-date relative to various metrics such as assets, earnings and cash flow, while they have been buying back their shares and paying high dividends. As long-term investors we like the idea of the number of shares going down because the percentage of our stake in the company rises without making an incremental investment.

 


More to come


Japanese equities remain cheap. Approximately half of the 3,800 listed Japanese companies are trading below 1x book value versus around 5% in the US3.

 

Given this backdrop, the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) has explicitly requested companies to seriously consider the cost of capital and their share price. They also mandated the requirement to disclose certain information to investors to close the deep valuation discount associated with a misallocation of capital.

 

Japan’s financial regulator, the FSA, also plans to formulate an action plan for listed companies with low valuations calling for reforms to improve corporate value4. It holds on to the remaining 0.5% as increased revenues.

 

 

The effects of bad debts


However, as the cost-of-living crisis continues to bite, bad debts are sure to rise among consumers. UK households in aggregate built up savings buffers throughout the Covid crisis when they were unable to go out and spend money how they normally might5. In addition, year ahead wage growth averaged at a high pace of 5.7% in February6. Our research suggests that while this is a hard time for UK households, most have enough wiggle room in their budgets to make them stretch – provided the breadwinners in the family remain employed. Once unemployment kicks in, however, it becomes much more difficult to pay the bills. Unemployment is therefore the primary input into banks’ forward-looking assessments of credit losses.

 

We examined what the impact might be of these two opposing forces – improving earnings and rising bad debt – on bank profits and capital. Our data science team took our analyst models and aggregated them up to the system level. We predicted how much net interest income could grow as rates rise and how much the bad debt charge (cost of risk) could increase as unemployment rises. We were then able to calculate what sector level profitability (ROE: return on equity) and capitalisation (Core Tier 1) would be at each interest rate and unemployment rate (Figures 1 and 2 respectively).

 

This is clearly a wake-up call for those companies who have earned lower returns versus their cost of capital, or whose price-to-book valuation has been persistently below 1x. Why is this important? As a result of these plans, companies will put excess cash to work by raising dividends, share buybacks or accretive mergers and acquisitions. This in turn would result in an increase in their return on equity and the valuation discount should be narrowed.

 

Against the backdrop of Buffet raising his stakes, we remain excited about the opportunity set of inexpensive quality businesses in Japan.

28 April 2023
Daisuke Nomoto
Daisuke Nomoto
Global Head of Japanese Equities
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Berkshire Hathaway ups the ante on Japan

1 Forbes, Warren Buffett Buys More Shares Of Japan’s Top 5 Trading Houses, 14 April 2023

2 The mention of specific stocks is not a recommendation to deal

3 Nomura, as at 31 Match 2023

4 Reuters, Japan financial regulator plans ‘action programme’ to boost shareholder engagement, 8 February 2023

Important information

For use by professional clients and/or equivalent investor types in your jurisdiction (not to be used with or passed on to retail clients). For marketing purposes.

This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered representative of any particular investment. This should not be considered an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments, or to provide investment advice or services. Investing involves risk including the risk of loss of principal. Your capital is at risk.  Market risk may affect a single issuer, sector of the economy, industry or the market as a whole. The value of investments is not guaranteed, and therefore an investor may not get back the amount invested. International investing involves certain risks and volatility due to potential political, economic or currency fluctuations and different financial and accounting standards. The securities included herein are for illustrative purposes only, subject to change and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell. Securities discussed may or may not prove profitable. The views expressed are as of the date given, may change as market or other conditions change and may differ from views expressed by other Columbia Threadneedle Investments (Columbia Threadneedle) associates or affiliates. Actual investments or investment decisions made by Columbia Threadneedle and its affiliates, whether for its own account or on behalf of clients, may not necessarily reflect the views expressed. This information is not intended to provide investment advice and does not take into consideration individual investor circumstances. Investment decisions should always be made based on an investor’s specific financial needs, objectives, goals, time horizon and risk tolerance. Asset classes described may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results, and no forecast should be considered a guarantee either. Information and opinions provided by third parties have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. This document and its contents have not been reviewed by any regulatory authority.


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In the Middle East: This document is distributed by Columbia Threadneedle Investments (ME) Limited, which is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA).  For Distributors: This document is intended to provide distributors with information about Group products and services and is not for further distribution. For Institutional Clients: The information in this document is not intended as financial advice and is only intended for persons with appropriate investment knowledge and who meet the regulatory criteria to be classified as a Professional Client or Market Counterparties and no other Person should act upon it.

 

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Important information

For use by professional clients and/or equivalent investor types in your jurisdiction (not to be used with or passed on to retail clients). For marketing purposes.

This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered representative of any particular investment. This should not be considered an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments, or to provide investment advice or services. Investing involves risk including the risk of loss of principal. Your capital is at risk.  Market risk may affect a single issuer, sector of the economy, industry or the market as a whole. The value of investments is not guaranteed, and therefore an investor may not get back the amount invested. International investing involves certain risks and volatility due to potential political, economic or currency fluctuations and different financial and accounting standards. The securities included herein are for illustrative purposes only, subject to change and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell. Securities discussed may or may not prove profitable. The views expressed are as of the date given, may change as market or other conditions change and may differ from views expressed by other Columbia Threadneedle Investments (Columbia Threadneedle) associates or affiliates. Actual investments or investment decisions made by Columbia Threadneedle and its affiliates, whether for its own account or on behalf of clients, may not necessarily reflect the views expressed. This information is not intended to provide investment advice and does not take into consideration individual investor circumstances. Investment decisions should always be made based on an investor’s specific financial needs, objectives, goals, time horizon and risk tolerance. Asset classes described may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results, and no forecast should be considered a guarantee either. Information and opinions provided by third parties have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. This document and its contents have not been reviewed by any regulatory authority.


In the UK:
Issued by Threadneedle Asset Management Limited, No. 573204 and/or Columbia Threadneedle Management Limited, No. 517895, both registered in England and Wales and authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority.

In the EEA: Issued by Threadneedle Management Luxembourg S.A., registered with the Registre de Commerce et des Sociétés (Luxembourg), No. B 110242 and/or Columbia Threadneedle Netherlands B.V., regulated by the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM), registered No. 08068841.

In Switzerland: Issued by Threadneedle Portfolio Services AG, an unregulated Swiss firm or Columbia Threadneedle Management (Swiss) GmbH, acting as representative office of Columbia Threadneedle Management Limited, authorised and regulated by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA).

In the Middle East: This document is distributed by Columbia Threadneedle Investments (ME) Limited, which is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA).  For Distributors: This document is intended to provide distributors with information about Group products and services and is not for further distribution. For Institutional Clients: The information in this document is not intended as financial advice and is only intended for persons with appropriate investment knowledge and who meet the regulatory criteria to be classified as a Professional Client or Market Counterparties and no other Person should act upon it.

 

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